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Understanding the Three-Tier Market
Winner-take-all economics have split venture capital into distinct universes, with growth rate as the key multiplier.
50th-75th Percentile
Traditional SaaS
Well-built software companies delivering steady SaaS growth, but without cutting-edge differentiation.
- • Base multiples: 8-15x ARR
- • Growth-adjusted: up to 25x ARR max
- • <100k ARR: ~10x discount (bootstrapping capacity)
- • 100-1000k ARR growth: +20% premium
- • <50% growth: -30% discount
90th-95th Percentile
AI-Enhanced SaaS
Successfully integrated AI into existing SaaS models, getting the 'AI premium' but not true AI-native differentiation.
- • Base multiples: 15-30x ARR
- • Growth-adjusted: up to 45x ARR (Best premium placement)
- • Shooting Star (200%+): +60% premium
- • Stable: 100%+ Discount applies
99th Percentile (Step Function)
AI-Native Category Creators
Step Function: Only companies hitting Bessemer's 200%+ growth benchmarks + 95%+ market adoption earn access to these multiples.
- • Supernova (300%+): 95th percentile, up to 120x ARR
- • Shooting Star (200%+): 85th percentile, up to 60x ARR
- • <200% growth: Drops to 50th-85th percentile, 25-45x ARR max
- • Growth requirement is absolute.
- • No growth rate = No tips for access
- • Core + PitchBook top 1% requires Supernova trajectory
- • Winner-take-all dynamics demand extreme scaling
Bessemer's AI Growth Benchmarks
• AI Supernova (300%+): $24M ARR in year 1, $172M in year 2. Explosive but low margins (~25%).
• AI Shooting Stars (200%+): Q2'23 growth pattern (quadruple, quadruple, triple, triple, triple): ~$3M+$12M+$40M+$120M ARR trajectory with 60% margins.
• Traditional SaaS (<100%): Slower growth increasingly penalized in AI era valuations.
PitchBook Q2 2025: AI vs Non-AI Premiums
• AI Valuation Premium: 56% higher at Series C, 230% higher at Series D+
• AI Stage-up Premium: Series B 2x (A) vs 1.4x (non-AI)
• Market Reality: 15.9% down rounds (decade high), Q2 IPOs averaged ~30% from peaks
• Capital Concentration: AI captures 65% of funding with only 35% of deal count
Live Market Multiples: SaaStr.ai Index
Current trading multiples for 24 leading B2B/SaaS companies, grouped by growth rate
High Growth Leaders
Growth Rate: 30%+ ARR
Avg Multiple: 27.5x ARR
Avg Growth: 45%
Avg Market Cap: $100B
Includes:: 15.3k TAM, FIG, 280%+
Moderate Growth
Growth Rate: 20-30% ARR
Avg Multiple: 14.2x ARR
Avg Growth: 25%
Avg Market Cap: $56B
Includes:: Major SaaS, NEU, DDOG
Slower Growth
Growth Rate: <20% ARR
Avg Multiple: 5.5x ARR
Avg Growth: 12%
Avg Market Cap: $54B
Includes:: Legacy SaaS, Public, 06-14